Because none of these ideas is what I would consider groundbreakingly awesometastic, I’ll start with something that I want to get out before the college football season gets too much closer. That being my prediction for the upcoming Nebraska season.
Last year I went with 8-4 for the regular season, while the rest of the universe seemed to think Nebraska would waltz into the Big Ten and just sort of have their way with their new conference. I laughed, but only to myself. I even bookmarked a more prominent blog (whom I will not embarrass by naming) which boldly stated “Ten Reasons Why Nebraska Will Win The Big Ten In Their Inaugural Season” so I could laugh at it when it would turn out to be wrong. And I did.
Instead of defying all logic, reason and the toughest schedule I can remember an NU team having we finished 9-3. Hardly the ‘running roughshod’ over the Big Ten so many envisioned, but they did finish one game better than my prediction.
Finishing better than my prediction isn’t all that uncommon. I’m a very pessimistic person. This lovely personal trait of mine carries into my outlook for my sports teams as well. I can almost always find a reason to worry about the next game. Even games where the experts say NU should roll. In those cases I tend to “just have a feeling” disaster awaits and an upset will ensue.
Such was the case with Northwestern last year. First of all, Northwestern has a nasty habit of downing at least one team they have no business of beating. Secondly, Nebraska was coming off what was arguably their biggest win of the season against eventual division champ Michigan State. I would also argue their most complete game of the season as well.
I just have a feeling that Pelini coached teams just come out flat for no reason sometimes. There isn’t much evidence to back this up, so I’m sure I’m wrong. Just yet another “feeling” I have. This let down seems to take place after the Blackshirt jerseys are given out the week before. Again, don’t have a lot of evidence to back this up.
The only real textbook example of this I can think of is after the come from behind win in the rain against Missouri at their home field. Following the game the D get their shirts and then proceed to give up 31 points to Texas Tech the following week. The week after that they turned the ball over more times than their point total and lost to Iowa State 7-9. The ISU game was one of the most textbook upsets I can remember.
Thinking back, both games’ worst moments came courtesy of “Droppin’ The Ball” Niles Paul. In the Texas Tech game a lateral fell to the turf. Being a lateral of course the ball was still live, and everyone in the stadium seemed to realize this except Paul who stood their picking his nose while a Tech defender picked up the ball and ran in for a defensive td.
In the Iowa State game, one of what felt like 800 turnovers involved a wide open Paul streaking down the sideline after making a long catch, then proceeding to fumble the ball out of the back of the end zone with no one within twenty yards of him.....
Wow, got a little off track there,...bad Niles Paul memories...
So, you had the above mentioned meltdown in 09’.
Then, in 10’ you had a Washington team embarrass Nebraska in our bowl game after being thrashed by the same Nebraska team earlier in the season. Nothing says ‘coming out flat’ like losing to a team you beat 56-21 in the same season at their home stadium.
And now we’re back to Northwestern last year.....I was of course not at all surprised by the loss...after all I had “that feeling”, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have similar feelings prior to the Fresno State and Washington games....
Perhaps that is the point of my pessimism. It acts as sort of an insulator for perceived eventual disappointment. If we win, wow, what a nice surprise! If we lose,...well,...kinda saw that one coming....
My pessimism went far enough that BigRedPessimist was going to be my username for a Nebraska football forum I was thinking about joining. I ended up not doing so because my experience in forums normally results in one of two outcomes: I either see my carefully put together thoughts completely ignored, or ridiculed to the point where my sexuallity is questioned. Also, it cost money.....so I didn’t join.
After more than adequately nailing down my Pessimismness, now it’s prediction time. My formula for predicting Nebraska’s seasons is normally as follows (especially with Pelini as head coach):
- Count the number of gimmie wins (Your Minnesotas, Idaho States, San Jose States,...etc)
- Count the number of sure losses (not so much anymore, but this was the case in the early Pelini years while he was still rebuilding)
- Count the number of toss up games
So, you got your gimmies, plus you figure you’ll win half of your toss up games,..then I add one game as a loss that we have no business losing and one game as a win we had no business winning and viola, you got my prediction.
Here are some examples of why I go with the One bad loss/One bad win thing:
Year/Inexplicable Loss/Inexplicable Win (notes)
2009: Iowa State/Oklahoma
(we beat Oklahoma with an epic 1 yard TD drive after a turnover put the ball on the 1 yard line.)
2010: Washington(In the bowl game)/ Iowa State
(Spent most of the game with Burkhead lined up at QB, Iowa State lost when they went for 2 and didn’t get it. I would argue they had us on the ropes and didn’t need to go for two)
2011: Northwestern/ Ohio State
(Yes, a miracle comeback, but how often is that going to happen...hence “miracle”)
So what of this year then? Well, this is where the bad news comes in...I really only see two ‘gimmies’ 1-AA Idaho State, and Minnesota. Minny is improving but I don’t think they have much of a chance in Memorial Stadium.
So 2-0 for the Gimmie’s.
The non conference schedule is brutal this year. Starting with Southern Miss who has a history of taking on anyone, anywhere, and scaring the bejesus out of them. The last time they came to Lincoln they got over the hump and did in fact beat us. They also upset, up until that point, undefeated Houston in their conference’s championship game last year.
I can’t remember an opening game of the season being more scary than this one. The good news is, Nebraska tends to play some of their best ball the first game of the season. This is where Nebraska’s usually superior coaching flexes its muscle. Even in 2002, when Nebraska went 7-7, they opened against what turned out to be a very good Arizona State team and throttled them. In 2007, in what turned out to be Callahans last year and a dismal 5-7 season, Nebraska beat down Nevada who wound up going to a bowl game.
Arkansas State won 10 games last season, and going to UCLA in only the second game of the season is scary as well, even if UCLA hasn’t been great lately. They were in their conference’s championship game last year, but only because USC wasn’t eligible.
All of those three games remind me of last year’s Washington/Fresno State games. Games I could easily see us losing. Games I will be very nervous going into. Games I could see us battling to the end to pull out a win but getting quite a scare.
As I said, Idaho State I’m listing as a gimmie, but as poorly as we played against our last 1-AA foe.....maybe this year will be the year we pull a Michigan and lose to a 1-AA school...
So, for the non conference I will say 3-1. We could easily be 4-0 or 1-3,...I’m very tempted to say 4-0 but my aforementioned pessimism prevents it.
Then, on to the toss ups: Wisky, OSU, NW, Michigan, MSU, PSU, and Iowa. I came really close to calling NW and Iowa as gimmies, but I’m thinking one or the other will be our surprise bad loss. Since there are two teams like that,..that’s a textbook toss up.
OSU is as close as I come to a guaranteed loss. The Buckeyes just don’t lose at home and it will be our first trip there. And who knows, perhaps we’ll be coming off a payback win against Wisky and be right on queue to go to Columbus and come out flat...
An odd number of toss ups,...I’ll go 4-3....
Finally,..to review....
2 gimmie wins (Idaho State, Minnesota)
2-1 non-conference (minus Idaho State)
4-3 in toss ups,....
All this math puts me again at 8-4 for the regular season just like last year.
Such a finish will add to the grumblings around my hometown about Pelini, and generally be seen as a disappointment to most NU Fans who insist on believing every NU team is MNC* caliber. Bless their hearts, but I’m glad they’re that way, someone has to balance guys like me out....
Since I put together a reasonable prediction, I will now allow my pessimistic side to run rampant and describe what it envisions for Nebraska next season.
- Nebraska will lose its opening game for the first time since 85’
- Pelini will lose his team (much like Billy C. after the USC beat down in 2007)
- The press, fans, and Pelini will square off, creating a very public, very hard to watch, falling out
- And amongst all the mess the team will be going into the Iowa game praying just to be Bowl eligible at 6-6
Wow,..that was a little TOO pessimistic,...even for me.
*brought out the MNC three weeks in a row! Go me!
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